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Research notes
Findings you can act on, and the reasoning behind each one. Each note takes a single question, tests every explanation we can think of against the record, and reports which ones survive, including when the answer is that none do.
3 bedroom new launch vs resale: which made more money?
Mostly not. Bought between 2017 and 2021 and sold from 2022, a 3 bedroom resale returned more than a launch in every year, and more even when the resale was nearly new, though by less. In the suburbs resale came out ahead every year. On the city fringe launch did better, on small samples.
Published 23 September 2026
In 2017, half of new 2 bedroom buyers came from an HDB address. In 2025, it was under two in five
Among new-launch 2 bedroom buyers whose address type is known, 53.6% gave an HDB address in 2017 and 37.7% in 2025. Resale fell half as far, from 40.3% to 33.1%. The retreat sits in the suburbs, where the new-launch share fell from 68.0% to 47.5% while the core central region moved three points, and in resale stock over sixteen years old, where it held flat for five years and then fell in each of the last three.
Published 17 September 2026
In 2017, three in five new-launch shoebox buyers came from an HDB address. In 2025, it was still more than four in ten
Among new-launch shoebox buyers (400 to 538 sqft) whose address type is known, 60.3% gave an HDB address in 2017, peaking at 64.7% in 2018 before falling to 43.7% in 2025, a fall of 16.6 points from 2017 and 21.0 from the peak. The same HDB share on 3 bedroom new launch fell further over the same nine years, from 52.1% to 28.9%, a fall of 23.2 points. Shoebox ran higher than 3 bedroom in both years measured, with a smaller fall on either basis.
Published 16 September 2026
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